Grateful Customer. Bad Investor.

I've been thinking a lot lately about the difference between being a customer and being an investor.

I use Starlink.

I drive a Tesla.

My business uses AI every single day.

I'm genuinely grateful these products exist. They've improved my life. They've improved my business. In many ways, they've improved the world.

But here's something I've realized:

Being a grateful customer doesn't automatically make me a good investor.

And I think we've started confusing those two things.

Today, it feels like every conversation eventually comes back to the same topics.

AI.

Crypto.

SpaceX.

The next big thing.

The next company that's going to change the world.

The next stock that's going to make everyone rich.

Whenever these conversations happen, I find myself having the same reaction:

"I don't know."

Not because I think they're bad businesses.

Not because I think they're bad investments.

I simply don't understand them well enough to have conviction.

I don't know how to value Nvidia.

I don't know what Tesla looks like ten years from now.

I don't know who wins in AI.

I don't know what the economics ultimately look like.

And the older I get, the more comfortable I am admitting that.

In fact, I've started to think that one of the most expensive mistakes people make is feeling like they need an opinion on everything.

You don't.

Nobody does.

The world is full of incredible businesses that I will never understand well enough to invest in.

And that's okay.

What isn't okay is pretending you understand something because everyone else is talking about it.

I think that's where a lot of people get into trouble.

They start with a great product.

Then they convince themselves they understand the investment.

Then they convince themselves they're early.

Then they convince themselves they're investing.

When in reality, they're often just hoping.

I've done enough things in my life to know the difference between understanding and hoping.

When I look at Filterbuy, I understand it.

I understand the customers.

I understand the economics.

I understand the risks.

I understand where we make money and where we lose money.

When something goes wrong, I usually know why.

When something goes right, I usually know why.

That understanding creates confidence.

Not because I'm always right.

But because I know what game I'm playing.

That's become one of the biggest filters in my life.

Not just for investing, but for almost everything.

Do I actually understand this?

Or am I borrowing someone else's conviction?

Because those are two very different things.

The funny thing is that most of the wealth I've created hasn't come from making brilliant predictions.

It came from finding something I understood, sticking with it, and continuing to compound over a very long period of time.

That's a lot less exciting than finding the next 100x winner.

It's also a lot more repeatable.

Maybe that's why I've always been drawn to boring businesses.

Not because they're boring.

But because they're understandable.

And when you truly understand something, you can stay with it long enough for compounding to work its magic.

So these days, I'm perfectly comfortable saying:

I love the product.

I use the product.

I'm grateful the product exists.

But I have absolutely no idea whether it's a good investment.

And that's okay.

Because the goal isn't to have an opinion on everything.

The goal is to recognize the few things you actually understand—and then have the patience to stay with them.